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GFT-Group / Î íàñ / Íîâîñòè êîìïàíèè / Íîâîñòè / Íîâîñòè

Äîëëàð ñòàë ñàìûì äîõîäíûì àêòèâîì ñåíòÿáðÿ.

Äîëëàð ïî òåìïàì ïîäîðîæàíèÿ îáîãíàë àêöèè, îáëèãàöèè è ñûðüåâûå àêòèâû âïåðâûå ñ ìàÿ, òàê êàê èíâåñòîðû ïûòàþòñÿ ïîäñòðàõîâàòüñÿ.

Çà ñåíòÿáðü íàöèîíàëüíàÿ âàëþòà ÑØÀ ïîäîðîæàëà íà 6% âïåðâûå çà áîëåå ÷åì òðè ãîäà, ïî äàííûì èíäåêñà äîëëàðà, ðàññ÷èòûâàåìîãî IntercontinentalExchange.

Äëÿ ñðàâíåíèÿ: èíäåêñ U.S. Treasury Master, îòñëåæèâàåìûé Bank of America Merrill Lynch, âûðîñ çà ìåñÿö íà 1,6%. Èíäåêñ MSCI All-Country World, îòðàæàþùèé ïîêàçàòåëè àêöèé êîìïàíèé èç 45 ñòðàí, îáâàëèëñÿ íà 8,9% — ýòî ìàêñèìàëüíîå ïàäåíèå ñ ìàÿ-2010. Ñûðüåâûå òîâàðû, êîëåáàíèÿ êîòîðûõ îòðàæàåò èíäåêñ GSCI Total Return îò Standard & Poor’s, ïîòåðÿë 12%.

Èíäåêñ äîëëàðà, îòñëåæèâàþùèé äèíàìèêó âàëþòû ÑØÀ ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê èõ îñíîâíûì òîðãîâûì ïàðòíåðàì, äîñòèã ìàêñèìóìà ñ îêòÿáðÿ-2008, ïðåîäîëåâ îòìåòêó â 79,154 ïóíêòà 3 îêòÿáðÿ, ïåðåäàåò àãåíòñòâî Bloomberg.

Òðàäèöèîííàÿ «ðåçåðâíàÿ» âàëþòà, øâåéöàðñêèé ôðàíê, ïîñëå òîãî, êàê âàëþòíûé ðåãóëÿòîð Êîíôåäåðàöèè îáúÿâèë â ïåðâûõ ÷èñëàõ ñåíòÿáðÿ, ÷òî ãîòîâ ñêóïàòü «íåîãðàíè÷åííûé îáúåì» âàëþòû äëÿ áîðüáû ñ óäîðîæàíèåì ôðàíêà, ïîòåðÿëà ñâîþ ïðèâëåêàòåëüíîñòü äëÿ òðåéäåðîâ. Áàíê ßïîíèè òàêæå àêòèâíî âìåøèâàëñÿ â õîä òîðãîâ ñâîåé íàöâàëþòîé è ïðîäàë 4,51 òðëí èåí (58,5 ìëðä äîëëàðîâ) â àâãóñòå, òàê êàê èåíà äîñòèãëà â ñåðåäèíå àâãóñòà ðåêîðäíûõ 79,95 èåíû çà äîëëàð â ñåðåäèíå àâãóñòà.

«Äîëëàð ïðèâëåêàåò ñðåäñòâà, òàê êàê èì áîëüøå íåêóäà ïîéòè ñ òàêîé ëèêâèäíîñòüþ», — îòìå÷àåò âàëþòíûé ýêñïåðò Deutsche Bank Àëàí Ðàñêèí.

Åùå îäíî òðàäèöèîííîå «óáåæèùå» äëÿ ó÷àñòíèêîâ ôèíðûíêà — çîëîòî — â ñåíòÿáðå ïîòåðÿëî 11% ñâîåé ñòîèìîñòè (+8% çà êâàðòàë). Ýòî ñòàëî êðóïíåéøèì ïàäåíèåì â òå÷åíèå ìåñÿöà çà ïîñëåäíèå òðè ãîäà.  íà÷àëå ñåíòÿáðÿ êîòèðîâêè ýòîãî äðàãìåòàëëà ïðåâûñèëè ðåêîðäíûå 1920 äîëëàðîâ çà óíöèþ, íî ê êîíöó ìåñÿöà îòêàòèëèñü äî 1620 äîëëàðîâ. «Äîëëàð ñåé÷àñ áåçîïàñíåå, ÷åì çîëîòî, — êîíñòàòèðóåò ñîóïðàâëÿþùèé àêòèâàìè First Asset Management Äæîí Ñòåâèíñîí. — Äîëëàð è äîëëàðîâûå àêòèâû ñòàëè, áåññïîðíî, áåçîïàñíûìè àêòèâàìè âî âðåìÿ ýòîãî êðèçèñà».

Äðóãèå ñûðüåâûå àêòèâû ïîêàçàëè åùå áîëüøóþ âîëàòèëüíîñòü è «ïðîñåëè» áîëüøå. Òàê, ñåðåáðî îáâàëèëîñü çà ñåíòÿáðü íà 28% â ÑØÀ. Öåíû íà íåôòü â ñðåäíåì ñíèçèëèñü çà ìåñÿö íà 11% (-8,6% çà êâàðòàë), à ìåäü çà êâàðòàë ïîòåðÿëà áîëåå 25% öåíû, ïîêàçàâ ìàêñèìàëüíûé êâàðòàëüíûé óáûòîê ñ êîíöà 2008 ãîäà, êîãäà öåíû íà ìåäü óïàëè íà 50%.

Òàêîå ïîäîðîæàíèå äîëëàðà ÑØÀ ïîêàçûâàåò äîâåðèå èíâåñòîðîâ ê ïëàòåæåñïîñîáíîñòè ñòðàíû ïîñëå òîãî, êàê ðåéòèíãîâîå àãåíòñòâî Standard & Poor’s ñíèçèëî ðåéòèíã ÑØÀ ñ ìàêñèìàëüíîãî óðîâíÿ AAA äâà ìåñÿöà íàçàä, ñ÷èòàåò àãåíòñòâî Bloomberg.

«Â ïåðèîä êðèçèñà õî÷åòñÿ èìåòü íàèáîëåå ëèêâèäíóþ âàëþòó. Ýòî ñãëàæèâàåò àðãóìåíòû [â ïîääåðæêó ïîçèöèè], ÷òî ïðèøåë «êîíåö äîëëàðà êàê ðåçåðâíîé âàëþòû», — çàÿâèë àãåíòñòâó Àðîîï ×àòòåðäæè, âàëþòíûé ñòðàòåã Barclays Capital.

×òî æäåò ïàðó åâðî/äîëëàð

Àíàëèòèêè ñ ñåðåäèíû ñåíòÿáðÿ íà÷àëè ïåðåñìàòðèâàòü è ñíèæàòü ïðîãíîçû ïî åâðî ê äîëëàðó äî ìèíèìóìîâ ñ èþíÿ 2010 ãîäà. Òàê, BofA Merrill Lynch íà ïðîøëîé íåäåëå ðåçêî ñíèçèë ïðîãíîç ïî ýòîé âàëþòíîé ïàðå äî 1,3 äîëëàðà çà åâðî íà êîíåö ãîäà ïðîòèâ 1,45 äîëëàðà çà åâðî ðàíåå. Íà ïåðâûé êâàðòàë 2012 ãîäà áàíê ïðîãíîçèðóåò êóðñ îêîëî 1,28 äîëëàðà çà åâðî ïðîòèâ 1,46 äîëëàðà çà åâðî ðàíåå.

Ïðîãíîç íà êîíåö 2012 ãîäà ñíèæåí ñ 1,5 äîëëàðà äî 1,4 äîëëàðà çà åâðî, ïî äàííûì ãàçåòû The Wall Street Journal.

UBS, ïî äàííûì åæåãîäíîãî èññëåäîâàíèÿ Euromoney, ïåðåñìàòðèâàåò ñâîé ïðîãíîç è îæèäàåò, ÷òî åâðî áóäåò òîðãîâàòüñÿ íà óðîâíå îêîëî 1,35 äîëëàðà çà åâðî ê êîíöó ãîäà.

Äðóãîé èíâåñòáàíê — JP Morgan Chase & Co. — òàêæå óðåçàë ñâîé ïðîãíîç ïî ïàðå åâðî/äîëëàð íà êîíåö 2011 ãîäà ñ 1,45 äîëëàðà äî 1,38 äîëëàðà çà åâðî ðàíåå. «Ìû ïðèäåðæèâàåìñÿ òî÷êè çðåíèÿ, ÷òî äîëëàð îêîí÷èò 2011 ãîä íà óðîâíÿõ íèæå íà÷àëà ãîäà, è ñíèæåíèå ïðîäîëæèòñÿ â 2012 ãîäó», — ãîâîðèòñÿ â ìàòåðèàëàõ áàíêîâñêèõ àíàëèòèêîâ, îáîñíîâûâàþùèõ ñâîé ïðîãíîç ðåêîðäíî íèçêîé äîõîäíîñòüþ êàçíà÷åéñêèõ îáëèãàöèé ÑØÀ, ãèãàíòñêèì äåôèöèòîì áþäæåòà ÑØÀ è «ïðàêòè÷åñêè íå ñóùåñòâóþùåé ñòðàòåãèåé ïî ñîêðàùåíèþ äåôèöèòà».

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